SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

Austin, David H.; MacAuley, Molly K..

This paper describes a model for estimating, in a probabilistic framework, expected future consumer surplus from planned new product innovations. The model has been applied to estimations of taxpayer benefits from NASA's New Millenium Program (NMP), which develops new technologies for space science, and to the digital data storage technologies being supported by the Department of Commerce's Advanced Technology Program (ATP). The model uses cost index methods based on consumers' estimated marginal valuation for quality improvements in the technology. Probabilistic values for performance increases are taken from the innovators' own expectations. The analysis reveals the sensitivity of welfare increases to these values, which are assumed to be biased upward....

Cairo Evaluation Clinic: Thoughts on Randomized Trials for Evaluation of Development

Palavras-chave: Quality-adjusted cost index; Consumer surplus; Innovation; Environmental Economics and Policy; O32; H43; D60.

Ano: 1998

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10655

Karlan, Dean S..

We were asked to discuss specific methodological approaches to evaluating three hypothetical interventions. This article uses this forum to discuss three misperceptions about randomized trials. First, nobody argues that randomized trials are appropriate in all settings, and for all questions. Everyone agrees that asking the right question is the highest priority. Second, the decision about what to measure and how to measure it, i.e., through qualitative or participatory methods versus quantitative survey or administrative data methods, is independent of the decision about whether to conduct a randomized trial. Third, randomized trials can be used to evaluate complex and dynamic processes, not just simple and static interventions. Evaluators should aim...

Cost Savings, Market Performance, and Economic Benefits of the U.S. Acid Rain Program

Palavras-chave: Program evaluation; Randomized control trial; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Financial Economics; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; Labor and Human Capital; Public Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; B41; O12; H43; J08; H54; D73; D12.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51913

Burtraw, Dallas.

This paper reports on four areas of research concerning Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments that regulates emissions of SO2 from electricity generation. The first is the costs of the program over the long-run as estimated from the current perspective taking into account recent changes in fuel markets and technology. We compare projected costs with potential cost savings that can be attributable to formal trading of emission allowances. The second area is an evaluation of how well allowance trading has worked to date. The third area is the relationship between compliance costs and economic costs from a general equilibrium perspective. The fourth area is a comparison of benefits and costs for the program.

Counterfactual approach for assessing agri-environmental policy: The case of the Finnish water protection policy

Palavras-chave: Acid rain; Benefit-cost analysis; Air pollution; Permit trading; Clean Air Act; Environmental Economics and Policy; H43; Q2; Q4.

Ano: 1998

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10885

Lankoski, Jussi E.; Ollikainen, Markku.

This paper applies counterfactual approach to assess the impacts of agri-environmental programs. Counterfactual analysis evaluates policies answering questions: what would have happened if...? We develop a theoretical framework for counterfactual analysis based on the inter-linkages between the behaviour of agents and the response of environmental systems to the economic decisions. We apply our model to assess the performance of the Finnish Agri- Environmental Programme to reduce agricultural nutrient runoff to the Baltic Sea. Counterfactual analysis allows us to determine both the unit effectiveness of the measures included in the Programme and its preventive impact. We demonstrate that the Finnish Agri- Environmental Programme does not achieve its goals,...

Palavras-chave: Environmental policy evaluation; Counterfactual analysis; Nutrient runoff; The Baltic Sea; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q5; H23; H43.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98993

Dams

Duflo, Esther; Pande, Rohini.

The construction of large dams is one of the most costly and controversial forms of public infrastructure investment in developing countries, but little is known about their impact. This paper studies the productivity and distributional effects of large dams in India. To account for endogenous placement of dams we use GIS data and the fact that river gradient affects a district's suitability for dams to provide instrumental variable estimates of their impact. We find that, in a district where a dam is built, agricultural production does not increase but poverty does. In contrast, districts located downstream from the dam benefit from increased irrigation and see agricultural production increase and poverty fall. Overall, our estimates suggest that large...

Discounting the Distant Future: How Much Do Uncertain Rates Increase Valuations?

Palavras-chave: Dams; Development planning; Program evaluation; India; Public Economics; O21; O12; H43; H23.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28373

Newell, Richard G.; Pizer, William A..

Costs and benefits in the distant future-such as those associated with global warming, long-lived infrastructure, hazardous and radioactive waste, and biodiversity-often have little value today when measured with conventional discount rates. We demonstrate that when the future path of this conventional rate is uncertain and persistent (i.e., highly correlated over time), the distant future should be discounted at lower rates than suggested by the current rate. We then use two centuries of data on U.S. interest rates to quantify this effect. Using both random walk and mean-reverting models, we compute the certainty-equivalent rate that is, the single discount rate that summarizes the effect of uncertainty and measures the appropriate forward rate of...

Economics of Forest Ecosystem Carbon Sinks: A Review

Palavras-chave: Discounting; Uncertainty; Interest rate forecasting; Climate policy; Intergenerational equity; Risk and Uncertainty; D90; E47; C53; H43; Q28.

Ano: 2001

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10743

van Kooten, G. Cornelis; Sohngen, Brent.

Carbon terrestrial sinks are seen as a low-cost alternative to fuel switching and reduced fossil fuel use for lowering atmospheric CO2. In this study, we review issues related to the use of terrestrial forestry activities to create CO2 offset credits. To gain a deeper understanding of the confusing empirical studies of forest projects to create carbon credits under Kyoto, we employ meta-regression analysis to analyze conditions under which forest activities generate CO2-emission reduction offsets at competitive ‘prices’. In particular, we examine 68 studies of the costs of creating carbon offsets using forestry. Baseline estimates of costs of sequestering carbon are some US$3–$280 per tCO2, indicating that the costs of creating CO2-emission offset credits...

Estimating Future Consumer Welfare Gains from Innovation: The Case of Digital Data Storage

Palavras-chave: Climate change; Kyoto Protocol; Meta-regression analysis; Carbon-uptake costs; Forest sinks; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q2; Q25; H43; C19.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37037

Austin, David H.; MacAuley, Molly K..

We develop a quality-adjusted cost index to estimate expected returns to investments in new technologies. The index addresses the problem of measuring social benefits from innovations in service sector inputs, where real output is not directly observable. We forecast welfare gains from two U.S. Advanced Technology Program innovations equaling 25%-50% of expected price, and aggregate consumer benefits of $1-$2 billion, relative to trends in existing technologies. Our model's probabilistic parameters reflect uncertainty about prospective outcomes and in our hedonic estimates of shadow values for selected product attributes. The index can be readily adopted by research and development (R&D) managers in industry and government.

Evaluating Regulatory Impact Analyses

Palavras-chave: Quality-adjusted cost index; Consumer surplus; Innovation; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; O32; H43; D60.

Ano: 2000

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10814

Harrington, Winston; Morgenstern, Richard D..

Federal agencies in the United States are required to prepare regulatory impact analyses (RIAs) for every major regulatory action they undertake. Increasingly, other OECD countries are imposing similar requirements. However, there has been little examination of the quality of these documents or of the uses to which they have been put in the regulatory process or elsewhere. In this paper we survey previous efforts to evaluate RIAs and find a fair amount of evaluation of RIAs as stand-alone documents, but much less evaluation of their contribution to producing better regulations.

Evaluating the Impact on Market Performance of Investments in Market Information Systems: Methodological Challenges

Palavras-chave: Regulation; RIA; Benefit-cost analysis; Cost-effectiveness analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy; H11; H43.

Ano: 2004

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10774

Staatz, John M.; Kizito, Andrew M.; Weber, Michael T.; Dembele, Niama Nango.

Evaluating the impact on market performance of investments in agricultural market information systems (MIS) face several methodological challenges. These fall into two broad categories: (a) defining the dimensions of market performance to measure (which is a function of whom the MIS is designed to serve) and identifying reliable indicators of those performance dimensions, and (b) identifying the causal effects of the MIS. The determination of causal effects in turn requires establishing a credible baseline, measuring “treatment effects” (i.e., the effects on economic behavior of receiving improved information from an MIS), dealing with problems of endogenous placement of treatment, and interpreting the validity of stakeholders’ statements and...

Evaluation of rural development programs after Poland’s accession to the EU: regional CGE approach

Palavras-chave: Market information services; Impact assessment; Market transparency; Food policies; Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Security and Poverty; International Development; Marketing; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C81; D80; H43; N57; 013; Q13.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108184

Zawalinska, Katarzyna.

rural policy, pillar 2, Poland

Identifying Individual Discount Rates and Valuing Public Open Space with Stated Preference Models

Palavras-chave: Rural development policy; Regional computable general equilibrium model; Poland; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Q18; R13; H43; O1.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51342

Kovacs, Kent F.; Larson, Douglas M..

An individual's rate of time preference is an important consideration for individuals deciding whether to support a public good since the benefits of a public good often come in the future. Our study finds individual discount rates from a contingent valuation method (CVM) question where the time frame of the payment schedule is varied across surveys. We find discount rates similar to the rates found in the recent revealed preference and experimental literature of around 30%. Our CVM question addresses the preservation of additional open space adjacent to a large regional park at the urban fringe of Portland, Oregon.

Impacto del programa Juntos sobre nutrición temprana

Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; H43; Q51; Q15.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9743

Jaramillo, Miguel; Sánchez, Alan.

Desde fines del 2005, el programa Juntos brinda transferencias monetarias condicionadas a los hogares ubicados en los distritos pobres del Perú. En el año 2010, había alrededor de 420 mil hogares beneficiados. Si bien se evidencian mejoras en los indicadores nutricionales de los niños afiliados al programa, la pregunta de la investigación es: ¿hasta qué punto estas mejoras serían consecuencia de Juntos? Esta pregunta es válida dado que durante el periodo de estudio existe una tendencia clara hacia la reducción en los niveles de desnutrición crónica a nivel nacional. Según cifras oficiales, la desnutrición crónica disminuyó de 28.5% en 2007 a 23.2% en 2010. Los resultados evidencian que Juntos habría favorecido a aquellos niños ubicados en los percentiles...

Tipo: Working Paper

Palavras-chave: Evaluación de programas; Programas sociales; Nutrición; Salud infantil; Perú; Programme evaluation; Social programmes; Nutrition; Child health; Peru; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; H43; I12; I38; O15.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120319

IMPACTS OF COMMUNITY-DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS ON INCOME AND ASSET ACQUISITION IN AFRICA: THE CASE OF NIGERIA

Nkonya, Ephraim M.; Phillip, Dayo; Mogues, Tewodaj; Pender, John L.; Kato, Edward.

This study evaluates the impacts of a community-driven development (CDD) project on household income and acquisition of productive assets in Nigeria. Using panel data and difference-in-differences and propensity score matching approaches, the study finds that the project succeeded in targeting the poor and women farmers in its productive asset acquisition component. Participation in the project also increased the income of beneficiaries by about 60%, which is well above the targeted increase of only 20% in the 6-year period of the project. However, sustainability of this dramatic achievement is uncertain since the project did not involve rural credit services. The large cash transfer through its productive asset acquisition component is also unsustainable.

Pobreza e impactos heterogeneos de las politicas activas del empleo juvenil: el caso de PROJOVEN en el Peru

Palavras-chave: Nigeria; Africa; Community-driven development; Impact evaluation; Poverty; Targeting; Income; Assets; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; International Development; H43; H42; Q13; Q15.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/50537

Galdo, Jose; Jaramillo, Miguel; Montalva, Veronica.

El presente estudio analiza la relación entre la pobreza de los hogares y los impactos de políticas activas de promoción del empleo en el Perú. En particular, analizamos el Programa de Capacitación Laboral Juvenil PROJOVEN, que, desde 1996, ha beneficiado directamente a cerca de 50.000 jóvenes pobres. La situación de pobreza de los beneficiarios de PROJOVEN es aproximada con un índice basado en 21 activos de los hogares. Tres resultados principales emergen. Primero, las desigualdades demográficas y socioeconómicas encontradas entre los beneficiarios y la población elegible se deben principalmente a decisiones individuales de los jóvenes antes que a decisiones administrativas del operador del programa. Segundo, se observa alta heterogeneidad en la...

State-Level Policies and Regulatory Guidance for Compliance in the Early Years of the SO2 Emission Allowance Trading Program

Palavras-chave: Pobreza; Programas de capacitacion; Jovenes; Empleo juvenil; Evaluacion de proyectos; Poverty; Training programmes; Young; Youth employment; Project evaluation; Labor and Human Capital; I38; H43; C13; C14.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55934

Lile, Ronald D.; Burtraw, Dallas.

The Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 instituted a historic experiment in emission allowance trading for sulfur dioxide (SO2). A necessary requirement for evaluating this experiment is an understanding of how the cost recovery rules and other guidance given to firms by state-level public utility commissions (PUCs) and elected bodies has affected compliance behavior. From the onset of the CAAA, there has been varied response by state policy-makers toward SO2 compliance. This paper presents a compilation of these actions as they took shape in states that were affected by the SO2 program. Our primary interest is on the proposals that emerged during the embryonic years of the allowance program, from 1990 to 1993, when investment plans for utilities...

Sulfur Dioxide Control by Electric Utilities: What Are the Gains from Trade?

Palavras-chave: Clean Air Act Amendments; Sulfur dioxide; Allowance trading; Regulation; Electricity; Public utility commissions; Environmental Economics and Policy; H43; Q2; Q4.

Ano: 1998

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10828

Carlson, Curtis; Burtraw, Dallas; Cropper, Maureen L.; Palmer, Karen L..

Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) established a market for transferable sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission allowances among electric utilities. This market offers firms facing high marginal abatement costs the opportunity to purchase the right to emit SO2 from firms with lower costs, and is expected to yield cost savings compared to a command and control approach to environmental regulation. This paper uses econometrically estimated marginal abatement cost functions for power plants affected by Title IV of the CAAA to evaluate the performance of the SO2 allowance market. Specifically, we investigate whether the much-heralded fall in the cost of abating SO2, compared to original estimates, can be attributed to allowance trading. We demonstrate...

Sustainable Decision-making: The State of the Art from an Economics Perspective

Palavras-chave: Acid rain; Sulfur dioxide; Air pollution; Clean Air Act; Title IV; Permit trading; Environmental Economics and Policy; H43; Q2; Q4.

Ano: 2000

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10790

Toman, Michael.

Government, corporate and other decision makers are more and more often being urged to 'act sustainably' and to pursue policy paths toward 'sustainable development.' However, application of these concepts is hampered by serious interdisciplinary disagreements about the interactions of humans with their environment. Moreover, reducing disagreements about sustainability cannot be achieved solely through an improvement in scientific knowledge. These observations lead me to express skepticism about the capacity of any more or less mechanistic rule, economic, scientific or otherwise, to provide definitive and reliable answers about sustainable policies or conduct. However, there are processes and procedures that can help guide decision-making. I underscore the...

Tax Deductions, Consumption Distortions, and the Marginal Excess Burden of Taxation

Palavras-chave: Sustainable development; Cost-benefit analysis; Intergenerational equity; Multicriteria analysis; Social values; Institutional and Behavioral Economics; A12; A13; B41; D61; D63; H43; Q28.

Ano: 1998

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10602

Parry, Ian W.H..

Certain types of expenditure--e.g. mortgage interest and medical insurance- receive favorable tax treatment and are effectively subsidized relative to other (non-tax-favored) expenditures. Labor taxes (e.g. income taxes) can therefore produce efficiency losses by distorting the allocation of consumption, in addition to distorting the labor market. Using evidence on the responsiveness of taxable income to changes in tax rates, a seminal study by Feldstein (1999) estimates that the marginal excess burden of taxation (MEB) could exceed unity, when the effects of tax deductions are taken into account. This is several times larger than in previous studies of the MEB that focus exclusively on labor market effects. This paper develops a "disaggregated" approach...

The Costs and Benefits of Reducing Acid Rain

Palavras-chave: Welfare costs; Tax system; Tax deductions; Simulations; Political Economy; H21; H43.

Ano: 1999

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10801

Burtraw, Dallas; Krupnick, Alan J.; Mansur, Erin T.; Austin, David H.; Farrell, Deirdre.

Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments initiated a dramatic reduction in emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides by electric power plants. This paper presents the results of an integrated assessment of the benefits and costs of the program, using the Tracking and Analysis Framework (TAF) developed for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Although dramatic uncertainties characterize our estimates especially with respect to the benefits of the program, many of which we have modeled explicitly, we find that the benefits can be expected to substantially outweigh the costs of the emission reductions. The lion's share of benefits result from reduced risk of premature mortality, especially through reduced exposure to...